In the present age of globalization, technology-revolution and sustainable development, the presence of seasonality in tourist arrivals is considered as a key policy issue that affects the global tourism industry by creating instability in the demand and revenues. The seasonal component in a time-series distorts the prediction attempts for policy-making. In this context, it is quintessential to...

The study attempts to test a hypothesis and explore some additional empirical evidences of a causal relationship between International Tourist Arrivals, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Economic Growth (GDP). Although tourism has been regarded as one of the most dynamic economic industries in the world, the previous studies of the causality between three variables are exceptionally rare. In ...

5 This paper introduces Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) for tourism demand forecasting 6 via an application into total monthly U.S. Tourist arrivals from 1996-2012. The global 7 tourism industry is today, a key driver of foreign exchange inflows to an economy. Here, we 8 compare the forecasting results from SSA with those from ARIMA, Exponential Smoothing 9 (ETS) and Neural Networks (NN). We f...

Volatility in monthly international tourist arrivals is defined as the squared deviation from mean monthly international tourist arrivals. Consequently, volatility is directly related to the standard deviation, which is a common measure of financial risk. Fluctuating variations, or conditional volatility, in international monthly tourist arrivals are typically associated with unanticipated even...

In the process of studying the number of tourist arrivals of each moment on every day, one of the key findings is a very good statistical regularity about tourist total arrivals. There exists high similarity among different scales of tourist arrivals, including the nearly same change trend. And on this basis this paper puts forward a new method of modeling and forecasting real-time tourist arri...

Modeling and forecasting techniques of the tourist arrivals are many and diverse. Th ere is no unique model that exactly outperforms the other models in every situation. Actually a few studies have realized modeling and forecasting the tourist arrivals to Turkey and these studies have not focused on the total tourist arrivals. Th ese studies have focused on the tourist arrivals to Turkey countr...

International tourism is an important source of service exports to Spain and its regions, particularly the Canary Islands. Tourism is the major industry in the Canary Islands, accounting for about 22% of GDP. This paper examines time series of international tourism demand to the Canary Islands collected by the National Airport Administration (AENA) at airports from information regarding the num...

This study applied a financial portfolio theory to estimate optimal market mixes to minimize the instability of inbound tourist market demand. An empirical analysis was applied to inbound tourists to Taiwan. The results shed light on diversification in tourism market and offer tourism authorities and policy-makers explicit guidelines for risk management in the destination planning process. Spec...

Apart from simple guesswork, time-series and regression techniques have largely dominated forecasting models for international tourism demand. This paper presents a new approach that uses a supervised feed-forward neural network model to forecast Japanese tourist arrivals in Hong Kong. The input layer of the neural network contains six nodes: Service Price, Average Hotel Rate, Foreign Exchange ...

International tourism is an important source of service exports to Spain and its regions, particularly the Balearic Islands. Tourism is the major industry in the Balearic Islands, accounting for about 85% of GDP (see Riera, 2003). This paper examines the time series properties of international tourism demand to the Balearic Islands. The data set comprises monthly figures from two leading touris...